https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1140929067740536832?s=17
“The revolution was stolen from the people.” Surprise! \o/
Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof) Tweeted:
Sudan’s brutal new leader, Hemeti, one of the leaders of the Darfur genocide, is now consolidating power over all Sudan, after murdering pro-democracy protesters. The big question is whether the Sudanese army stands up to him as he drags the country backward. https://t.co/j75hVL9Slm
https://www.redstate.com/joesquire/2019/06/17/really-really-stupid-assume-trump-will-lose-2020/
I take issue with all this guy’s snide asides, BUT… the people of Israel recently voted to give Benjamin Netanyahu a fifth term, in spite of all his many flaws. He’s right; there are no guarantees, and there’s no reason 47% of the country can’t put Trump back in office in 2020.
«Sure, Trump takes a beating when it comes to character – I readily admit that I take part in that – but you cannot deny that his administration has had a positive impact on the economy.
Do you think the American people are concerned with Trump the person or their personal financial situations right now? I can almost guarantee you can ask all the questions you want about his character, but if the economy is still trucking along, it won’t mean much come 2020. It’s the jobs people will consider. They either lost theirs or knew someone who lost theirs during the recession, and now virtually everyone they know has a job. That will (likely) still be the case in 2020. And that’s the case Trump should make.»
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/there-should-be-age-limit-presidents/591724/
I love this stuff (also, it’s a good article):
«To be sure, anyone who criticizes our gerontocracy must insert a “to be sure” paragraph right about now, praising the gumption and resilience of our oldsters, marveling at their energy and their bottomless reservoirs of wisdom.»
The power of curious generalists. (See also https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox.)
Kind of makes one wonder if there’s something behind Michael Gove’s statement that “we’ve had enough of experts.” Besides Russia, that is.
Or this could just be my happy confirmation bias.
«Tetlock decided to put expert political and economic predictions to the test. With the Cold War in full swing, he collected forecasts from 284 highly educated experts who averaged more than 12 years of experience in their specialties. To ensure that the predictions were concrete, experts had to give specific probabilities of future events. Tetlock had to collect enough predictions that he could separate lucky and unlucky streaks from true skill. The project lasted 20 years, and comprised 82,361 probability estimates about the future.
The result: The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters. Their areas of specialty, years of experience, and (for some) access to classified information made no difference. They were bad at short-term forecasting and bad at long-term forecasting. They were bad at forecasting in every domain. When experts declared that future events were impossible or nearly impossible, 15 percent of them occurred nonetheless. When they declared events to be a sure thing, more than one-quarter of them failed to transpire. As the Danish proverb warns, “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
….
Tetlock, along with his wife and collaborator, the psychologist Barbara Mellers, ran a team named the Good Judgment Project. Rather than recruit decorated experts, they issued an open call for volunteers. After a simple screening, they invited 3,200 people to start forecasting. Among those, they identified a small group of the foxiest forecasters—bright people with extremely wide-ranging interests and unusually expansive reading habits, but no particular relevant background—and weighted team forecasts toward their predictions. They destroyed the competition.
Tetlock and Mellers found that not only were the best forecasters foxy as individuals, but they tended to have qualities that made them particularly effective collaborators. They were “curious about, well, really everything,” as one of the top forecasters told me. They crossed disciplines, and viewed their teammates as sources for learning, rather than peers to be convinced. When those foxes were later grouped into much smaller teams—12 members each—they became even more accurate. They outperformed—by a lot—a group of experienced intelligence analysts with access to classified data.»
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/can-elizabeth-warren-win-it-all
“High voltage.” I like that.
This is a really good article, and I recommend the whole thing.
«“Gentle and soft-spoken she isn’t, on anything,” Charles Fried, one of Warren’s former colleagues at Harvard Law School and a Solicitor General in the Reagan Administration, told me. “She either doesn’t speak or it is high voltage.”
….
“You know who agrees with that, by the way?” Warren continued. “Steve Bannon. It just hit me as I was telling you this.” She paraphrased something that Bannon, the adviser who helped engineer Trump’s victory, had said in 2017: “If the Democrats are talking about what’s happening in the lives of working people—if they’re talking about the economics of America—they’re going to win.”
….
“And I went from down seventeen points to beating Brown by seven and a half points.
“The same will be true in 2020,” Warren went on. She leaned forward, her eyes gleaming: “People all across this country understand that government works great for the rich and powerful, and isn’t working for them. We’ll get organized. We’ll fight for working people. We’ll build a grassroots movement. And that’s how I’ll be the first woman elected President of the United States.”»
I actually don’t care about that “first woman” part, except that I think less testosterone would be good.
«“Because when my mama walked off to the Sears and got a minimum-wage job, a minimum-wage job in America would support a family of three. It would pay a mortgage, keep the utilities on, and put food on the table. Today, a full-time minimum-wage job in America will not keep a mama and a baby out of poverty.” Her voice grew hard: “And that is why I am in this fight.”
….
Under Cordray, the C.F.P.B. forced financial institutions to return twelve billion dollars to customers who had been targeted by scams such as unauthorized overdraft charges and illegal fees for student-loan repayments. Congressional Republicans kept up their opposition; by 2017, they had introduced a hundred and thirty-five bills and resolutions to weaken or eliminate the agency.
….
At an event in Salem, New Hampshire, she pointed out that most middle-income voters are already paying a form of wealth tax, through property taxes. “All I want to do that’s different is include the Rembrandt and the diamonds!” she said. A man called out from the audience, “And the yacht!” Warren replied, “And the yacht with the imax theatre!”
….
“Markets are terrific at spurring innovation, driving down costs, and producing consumer benefits—if those markets operate according to some basic rules.” …. But, Warren went on, “capitalism without rules is theft. People say the game is rigged, and they’re right.”
Even some corporations and wealthy individuals have begun publicly acknowledging that the financial system is badly off balance. During a company event in March, Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase, said, “I don’t want to be a tone-deaf C.E.O. While the company is doing fine, it is absolutely obvious that a big chunk [of Americans] have been left behind.”»
https://twitter.com/indyweek/status/1139499206559850498?s=17
Seems like a worthwhile cause. I’m surprised there are only 177 other recurring donations (besides mine) in the Triangle.
Indy Week (@indyweek) Tweeted:
Some numbers for you: So far, the #INDYPressClub has about 400 members and, as of this morning, 178 recurring donations. Including those, we’ve raised about $42K toward our $100K annual goal. In 5 weeks! For perspective, $42K is about our annual freelance budget! 8/
Ah, the life of an enterprise developer. I just read this sentence in a group email: “I will further socialize this plan at the scrum of scrums call tomorrow.”
<eyeroll/>
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article231394033.html
«“This was as much a longstanding dispute over parking as Rosa Parks was over a bus seat,” said Farris Barakat, Deah Barakat’s brother.»
In the final moments before his death, Deah Barakat recorded his last interaction with Craig Hicks, on his cell phone, played in court. His sister, Suzanne Barakat is overwhelmed, falls to the floor crying. My God all of this is awful.
A recess has been called.
— Rowaida Abdelaziz (@Rowaida_Abdel) June 12, 2019
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
At what point does “evil” become an appropriate word and not some quaint reference from ancient literature?
