https://chopwoodcarrywaterdailyactions.substack.com/p/chop-wood-carry-water-58-f47?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=362618&post_id=196817040&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=2tv2o&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

It occurs to me, as I read this, that this is why attitude and framing and permission structures matter: the field is slanted against Dems. Rural states slant the Senate (and the Presidency). Gerrymandering slants the House (always has, not just recently). Republicans have been working very hard to suppress Democratic voters, and in elections where the margins are a fraction of a percentage point (or a couple of hundred actual votes), a fraction of a percentage point suppressed matters.

Looking backwards (a. k. a. “conservatism”) is always easier than looking forwards. There’s only one past, but there are many futures. Which one do we pick? That’s why liberals are always so chaotic and fragmented.

So, the field is slanted. Which is why I can say that a vote for a third-party candidate or a decision not to vote is a vote for Republicans.

Which is why the statement that “I won’t vote for any party that supports genocide” or “a pox on both their houses” or “I don’t care about the general; I’m going to vote for a far-left candidate in the primary, even if they can’t win” is such bullshit. All of that is a vote for the direction of the slant. There is no neutral.

Duh. But also: your talk that influences somebody else in that direction is also problematic. Stop it.

I don’t know why I didn’t come to this realization and start making this argument a few decades ago.

«I’ll go a step further and say that telling people “we’re f*cked,” or “the House is gone,” or “what’s the point?” right now is abetting the enemy. That is exactly what they want you to do! MAGA has always been excellent at depressing turnout via sowing division, killing morale, and using skewed polls. They love that Democrats are throwing their hands up right now. They are counting on it. Because they are still likely to lose in November, but if we give up, then maybe, just maybe they’ll have a chance!»

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/09/hungary-prime-minister-peter-magyar-sworn-in-viktor-oban

Well, huh. He made it to his swearing-in. Color me mildly surprised.

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-america-first-corporate-graveyard-trump-economy

The stupidity of Trump and American voters, frankly:

«Throughout each of his presidential campaigns, Trump promised a manufacturing renaissance. This was never likely to happen, despite bipartisan nostalgia for a bygone U.S. manufacturing era. That’s largely because we are now a services-based economy. But a resurgence was especially unlikely given Trump’s specific brand of America First policies, which includes raising costs of the inputs that U.S. manufacturers buy while also closing off export markets where these same U.S. manufacturers hope to sell their products.

The result: There are approximately 80,000 fewer manufacturing jobs today than there were when Trump took office last year. Not coincidentally, steel prices here in the United States are about 40 percent higher than those in Western Europe. The increase in corporate bankruptcies last year was driven largely by industrial firms grappling with tariffs.

The sweeping Trump tariffs have been painful enough. But lately, they have been coupled with new stressors resulting from his war with Iran.

For example, aluminum prices are nearly double what they were a year ago, thanks to a combination of Trump’s tariffs; a shutdown at a U.S. aluminum supplier; and the closure of one of the world’s largest aluminum smelters, located near Abu Dhabi, which was struck by an Iranian missile.

This has hit auto companies especially hard. In an earnings call last week, Ford said it expected its commodity costs this year to reach $2 billion, twice its previous projection, primarily because of rising aluminum prices.

Other manufacturers are feeling the pinch, too: In its own earnings filing today, Whirlpool warned that the Iran war had “resulted in recession-level industry decline in the U.S.” As trade nerds may recall: Whirlpool was one of the very first beneficiaries of Trump’s trade wars in his first term, through his global washing-machine tariffs. The company and its workers initially celebrated—but then they were beset by a series of other “America First” policies (including those metal tariffs).»

https://www.marieclaire.com/politics/congressional-pact-lamonica-mciver-ilhan-omar-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-nancy-pelosi/

Wow. Great article. 🥲

Gives me a sense of perspective.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/opinion/birthrate-kids-parents-demographics-future.html?unlocked_article_code=1.glA.uBB-.T6wllX4TJM3D&smid=url-share (gift)

So many reasons. Everyone has a theory. Demographer types have a new theory: massive uncertainty about the future. It seems obvious, but it’s starting to get official, along with people thinking about how to tackle it.

https://www.mediamatters.org/angelo-carusone/media-matters-secures-complete-and-total-victory-against-federal-trade-commission

Yay!

Also, this: fight, don’t fold: https://www.mediamatters.org/ms-now-msnbc/you-have-fight-not-fold-angelo-carusone-discusses-media-matters-victory-against

https://www.vox.com/politics/487756/ukraine-russia-war-iran-drones

«For the moment, fears that Ukraine’s slow, grinding defeat was inevitable seem to have been premature: It’s in a better position today that many would have anticipated, even a few months ago. But it’s also increasingly hard to see how this uniquely deadly and destructive war will end.»

Mind blown. Doing some research on accreditation for institutions of higher learning, and I ran across this:

«SACSCOC [Southern Association of Colleges and Schools Commission on Colleges] has faced significant challenges in its home territory. Florida and North Carolina have passed laws requiring public universities to switch accreditors every cycle, effectively forcing many to leave SACSCOC.»

Why in the world would NC (and FL) require institutions to switch accreditors every 8-10 years? That’s not cheap, getting completely re-accredited by another accreditor. Why???

«Rather than MSCHE [Middle States Commission on Higher Education] capturing all of SACSCOC’s disgruntled or legally-bound members, a new entity called the Commission for Public Higher Education (CPHE) has been formed by six Southern university systems (including FL, TX, and NC) specifically to challenge what state leaders call the “monopoly” of traditional accreditors like SACSCOC.»

Oh.

Let me guess: after one cycle, the law requiring colleges to switch accreditors will magically be repealed. Maybe even by Democrats. But it’ll be too late.

I actually vaguely recall hearing about this recently (the requirement to switch accreditors), but it got buried under the current flood of awfulness and racism.

And why would an entire state university system be “unsatisfied” with their current accreditor? Well… guess who appoints the governance of said state university system?

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/05/04/fetterman-switch-parties-republican-00904177?gpp=DBAA

Oh, yeah, absolutely, Democrats going to war with John Fetterman is a GREAT idea. 🙄

«It goes like this: The more one drifts from their political tribe, the more they’re scorned and mocked by that tribe, often in personal terms. This only prompts the person drifting away to accelerate their turn and adopt the language, customs and some positions of the other tribe with an I’ll-show-them determination. Soon, they’re identifying somewhat or entirely with the new tribe. The path only goes in one direction.»

https://apnews.com/article/abortion-pills-mail-louisiana-ruling-40d60a9bf6212480e527480757b603c3

Why isn’t this all over Mastodon? Have I been blocked by everybody but the creative fringe?