https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2019/
«As a simple rule of thumb, we’ve found polls “call” the right winner 80 percent of the time, meaning they fail to do so the other 20 percent of the time….
Polls in our database that showed a lead of 3 percentage points or less identified the winner only 58 percent of the time — a bit better than random chance, but not much better.»
Just want to point out that 538 gives both NYT (/CBS) & Siena an “A” rating in terms of quality of pollster.
«The Times/Siena results and other data suggest that the president’s advantage in the Electoral College relative to the nation as a whole remains intact or has even grown since 2016, raising the possibility that the Republicans could — for the third time in the past six elections — win the presidency while losing the popular vote.»
Seems like reasonable doubt to me.
https://mg.co.za/article/2019-10-31-00-the-trouble-with-indiscriminate-tree-planting-in-africa
«“It is true that you could store lots of carbon if you planted more trees. But when I engaged with European scientists about why you can’t plant trees in Europe, they say, ‘Well, we are using that land.’ There is a sense that land in Africa is available and can be used to fix global issues.”»
Ok, well, when you put it THAT way, it does sound like colonialism/environmental racism, but surely it can’t be, right?
«Digging up the soil to plant the trees may inadvertently release carbon into the atmosphere, because grasslands themselves are hypothesised to be formidable carbon sinks; and trees, with their deep roots, use up lots of water — leaving less for other species, including humans.
This science is not new, nor is it controversial: in fact, South Africa heavily regulates the planting of new forests because of their negative impact on water supply.»
(Actual tweet thread: https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1190260692189880320?s=20 )
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/10/california-fires-and-pge-toxic-debt/600979/
Cool, the phrase “technical debt” may be starting to migrate from the software-development world to the mainstream.
Also, maybe it’s time for some clawback for PG&E.
Oh, dear. This is why we need to win big in the Senate (because we need to overcome folks like Sinema and Manchin).
«…it’s genuinely unclear whether it would ultimately be ruled constitutional. The issue isn’t that Congress can’t enact a wealth tax. It’s that if a wealth tax counts as a “direct” tax, Congress would have to ensure that the amount of money coming from each state was roughly the same on a per-capita basis, as there is a provision of the Constitution that bans direct taxes unless the amount collected is drawn equally from the states based on their populations*. Given that wealth is not evenly distributed across the states, that equal distribution would be functionally impossible to ensure.»
*Article I, Section 2: “Representatives and blah blah blah shall be apportioned among the several states which may be included within this union, according to their respective numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole number of free persons, including those bound to service for a term of years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons.”
There’s that infamous 3/5 clause, but the blah blah blah your eye (my eye) so easily slides over is: “direct taxes”. Whatever that is.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/29/climate/coastal-cities-underwater.html
Glub.
Even more political turmoil and chances to be ugly to refugees.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/29/kyrsten-sinema-arizona-democrats-060187
I don’t care as much about those specific programs as I do about re-apportioning the House and adding a couple of Supreme Court justices, but this means we can’t just barely win the Senate; we have to overperform.
«Take the liberal drive to bust down age-old Senate rules in order to pass “Medicare for All” or a “Green New Deal.” Sinema not only opposes getting rid of the 60-vote filibuster threshold for legislation, she wants to restore the supermajority requirement for presidential nominees that has been weakened by both parties.»
