Interesting how urban Texas and Arizona are.
«How urban or rural is your state?
FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean and urbanization index for each state»
| STATE | PARTISAN LEAN | URBANIZATION INDEX | STATE | PARTISAN LEAN | URBANIZATION INDEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | D+22 | 12.56 | North Carolina | R+5 | 10.32 |
| New Jersey | D+13 | 12.24 | Missouri | R+19 | 10.20 |
| California | D+24 | 12.19 | Nebraska | R+24 | 10.20 |
| Massachusetts | D+29 | 11.84 | Tennessee | R+28 | 10.20 |
| Nevada | R+1 | 11.77 | Wisconsin | R+1 | 10.19 |
| Rhode Island | D+26 | 11.72 | Louisiana | R+17 | 10.18 |
| Maryland | D+23 | 11.71 | Kansas | R+23 | 10.12 |
| Illinois | D+13 | 11.62 | South Carolina | R+17 | 10.11 |
| Florida | R+5 | 11.46 | Oklahoma | R+34 | 9.94 |
| Connecticut | D+11 | 11.41 | New Hampshire | R+2 | 9.92 |
| Arizona | R+9 | 11.30 | New Mexico | D+7 | 9.90 |
| Texas | R+17 | 11.17 | Kentucky | R+23 | 9.79 |
| Colorado | D+1 | 11.15 | Alabama | R+27 | 9.61 |
| Pennsylvania | R+1 | 11.15 | Idaho | R+35 | 9.59 |
| Washington | D+12 | 11.12 | Iowa | R+6 | 9.59 |
| Hawaii | D+36 | 11.09 | Arkansas | R+24 | 9.26 |
| Delaware | D+14 | 11.01 | West Virginia | R+30 | 9.11 |
| Utah | R+31 | 10.96 | North Dakota | R+33 | 9.05 |
| Virginia | EVEN | 10.91 | Maine | D+5 | 9.04 |
| Ohio | R+7 | 10.88 | Mississippi | R+15 | 8.91 |
| Michigan | D+1 | 10.81 | Vermont | D+24 | 8.84 |
| Oregon | D+9 | 10.71 | Alaska | R+15 | 8.74 |
| Georgia | R+12 | 10.55 | South Dakota | R+31 | 8.73 |
| Minnesota | D+2 | 10.46 | Montana | R+18 | 8.47 |
| Indiana | R+18 | 10.41 | Wyoming | R+47 | 8.26 |
FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index is calculated as the natural logarithm of the average number of people living within a five-mile radius of a given resident.
SOURCE: AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY
(Don’t know how important it is that 538’s partisan lean figures don’t include 2018 election. That election seems to have been a Pretty Big Deal.)
Now, couple that with whatever per-state COVID-19 stats you like. I’m assuming cold-weather states like Alaska and Vermont have a lot of people indoors (i.e., in close proximity), but Mississippi might a good rural state to track. Or West Virginia, if you think structural racism might affect the figures. Or both, really, MS and WV.
