Silver Bulletpoints: Why Did All The White Guys Stampede Into The Race So Late? | FiveThirtyEight

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/silver-bulletpoints-why-did-all-the-white-guys-stampede-into-the-race-so-late/

Item 3, on whether good candidates are bypassing the Senate for a shot at the glory of being president:

«If you apply that analysis to this year’s races, you find that a strong Democratic candidate — a 4.5 on the 5-point scale — still needs a lot of breaks to win in a red state. In Montana, for instance, I estimate that even if the national environment is about as good for Democrats as last year, then even a candidate as good as Bullock would still only have a 25 or 30 percent chance of winning. In a neutral environment, he’d have almost no shot.»

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