Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House | FiveThirtyEight


I hope nobody has time to read this because they’re all out voting.

«The model then has 34 seats between its three most competitive categories: “lean Democratic” (8 seats), “toss-up” (16 seats) and “lean Republican” (10 seats). If Republicans win 24 of those 34 seats — assuming everything else went to form — they’ll keep the House.

How hard is that? Because of the possibility of a systematic polling error, it isn’t really that hard at all. If there’s a typical polling error of 2 to 3 percentage points and it works in Republicans’ favor, the House would be a toss-up. We might not even know the winner for several days as everyone waits for additional mail ballots to be returned from California. Thus, the Lite forecast gives Republicans a 2 in 9, or 22 percent, chance of keeping the House based on the possibility of a systematic polling error. Their chances are 18 percent in Deluxe and 15 percent in our Classic version, meanwhile.

That isn’t a great position, but those are real, tangible chances.»


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