What Some Early, High-Quality Polls Can Tell Us About The Race For The House | FiveThirtyEight

Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-some-early-high-quality-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-race-for-the-house/

«the Monmouth polls imply a 6-point shift toward Democrats from the partisan lean, on average. That’s right in line with the 6- to 9-point lead Democrats have held in generic-ballot polling over the weeks that Monmouth has conducted these polls. It’s well below the average 16 points by which Democrats have outperformed partisan lean in federal special elections since President Trump’s inauguration, but that’s not too surprising: Special elections, by definition, do not feature incumbents (who have a built-in advantage)

….

  • 46 percent of Americans say they are extremely interested in the November elections according to a Fox News poll. That’s compared to 29 percent around this time in 2014 and 28 percent in 2010.»

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.