Jobless Rate Looks Like Old Times, but the Economy Doesn’t
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/04/business/economy/unemployment-jobs.html

«“A 3.9 percent rate today doesn’t suggest as tight a labor market as 3.9 percent in 2000 or 3.9 percent in the late 1960s,” said Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley’s chief United States economist.

A lot has changed since the turn of the century. The share of working-age women in the labor force began to fall in 2000, after increasing for decades. Men have been dropping out for much longer. The upshot is that a smaller share of people are participating in the labor market, and it’s easier to get low levels of unemployment when fewer people are vying for jobs.

In fact, a shrinking labor force in April is part of why the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent from 4.1 percent even as payrolls grew by a fairly routine 164,000 jobs.»

There are indications of wage increases waiting in the wings, though. Craziness.

Also, metal tariffs are starting to affect hiring, but not in a good way. I guess it’s easier to lay people off than to start up a factory. Complex, longer-term implications are always harder to see.