Paper for which a friend of mine was the lead researcher. On the one hand, an obvious conclusion: unhappy voters yields anti-incumbent sentiment. On the other… no, it wasn’t (predominantly) racism or anger or distrust of Clinton. He has the numbers.

My feeling is that this accounts for the “base” of the movement of the electorate, but not the last nudge over the top that Trump got from Russian meddling, the Comey letter (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/), and Dems feeling like they didn’t need to be careful with their vote, for whatever reason (overconfidence, lack of belief that votes matter).

Population wellbeing, an aggregate measure of positive mental, physical, and emotional health, has previously been used as a marker of community thriving. We examined whether several community measures of wellbeing, and their change since 2012, could be used to understand electoral changes that led to the outcome of the 2016 United States presidential election. We found that areas of the US which had the largest shifts away from the incumbent party had both lower wellbeing and greater drops in wellbeing when compared with areas that did not shift. In comparison, changes in income were not related to voting shifts. Well-being may be more useful in predicting and understanding electoral outcomes than some more conventional voting determinants.

Source: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0193401

Ok, I’ll be scrolling to random posts in this stream from time to time.

President Chump. Who does this? Someone who really hates confrontation. Who brags about what a great deal-maker he is? Someone who’s a terrible deal-maker because he has no backbone. Who brags about how aggressively he treats women? Someone who wants to impress the guy(s) he’s with. Who chases a porn star around in his hotel room and tells her “I have to see you again”? Who respects “strong leaders” (i.e., heads of authoritarian states)? A chump.

I almost feel sorry for him, because, apparently his dad was a piece of work. Makes me wonder how Barron’s gonna turn out. (Not to mention this country.)

Ouch.

https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/973547242182373376

Update: Well… hang on:

https://twitter.com/lachlan/status/973547390140649472

https://twitter.com/lachlan/status/973547390140649472

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/ICE-spokesman-said-to-quit-over-officials-12748022.php

“I quit because I didn’t want to perpetuate misleading facts,” said Schwab, 38, who was hired in 2015 and resigned last week. “I asked them to change the information. I told them that the information was wrong, they asked me to deflect, and I didn’t agree with that. Then I took some time and I quit.”

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/973430788879519744.html

This is a 2-sided problem. Pre 2016, the media overestimated how accurate polling had been all along. It may underestimate it now. Contrary to the media narrative, polls of Brexit and the 2016 US general election were about as accurate as polls had been on average, historically.

Not to say there aren’t challenges; declining response rates are a big issue. But if you’re citing Brexit or 11/8/16 as examples of failure—when polls were off by only a few points, well within theoretical and empirical margins of error—you may not know what you’re talking about.

https://www.thenation.com/article/its-time-to-abolish-ice/

Hmm. What WOULD happen if we abolished ICE?

Josh Barro, a senior editor at Business Insider, argued that progressives have not paired the proposal with “a plan to do the function without the hated agency.”

But the goal of abolishing the agency is to abolish the function. ICE has become a genuine threat to democracy, and it is destroying thousands of lives. Moreover, abolishing it would only take us back to 2003, when the agency was first formed.

ICE was a direct product of the post–September 11 panic culture, and was created in the legislation Congress passed in the wake of the attacks. From the start, the agency was paired with the brand-new Department of Homeland Security’s increased surveillance of communities of color and immigrant communities. By putting ICE under the scope of DHS, the government framed immigration as a national security issue rather than an issue of community development, diversity or human rights.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-separates-a-mother-and-daughter-fleeing-violence-in-congo/2018/03/11/98468802-2249-11e8-86f6-54bfff693d2b_story.html

We are not this. This is why we vote.

A YEAR ago, then-Homeland Security Secretary John F. Kelly said publicly that his department might separate children from parents caught crossing the border, including those fleeing violence and seeking asylum, as a punitive means of deterring others who might follow. Officials floated the idea again in December, having presented it to Mr. Kelly’s successor, Kirstjen Nielsen. Future families should be aware that “there are consequences to illegal entry,” one official told The Post.

Now, as immigration advocates document such cases occurring nationwide — some said to involve weeping children wrenched from their mothers’ and fathers’ arms — DHS officials profess outrage at suggestions that they would do such a thing “for reasons other than to protect the child.” Claims that the department would be so heartless should be regarded “with the level of skepticism they deserve,” said Tyler Houlton, a spokesman.

So the department stands accused of doing precisely what it said it might do, but assertions that it is actually doing so should be viewed skeptically?

https://usa.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/the-wild-wild-world-of-sheriff-david-clarke/

Hmm.

In topsy-turvy Trumpland, an inmate dying in one of your jails might not be enough to destroy your reputation. But just appearing to have an extramarital affair with a Muslim may be pushing it.

Also, that screenshot with messages of passion and the footer “You can no longer DM this person” is sad, but I don’t know for whom.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/article204578309.html

I guess, at some point, the bumper sticker of the season will be simply “Had Enough?”

I know I have.