On self-fulfilling fears

https://twitter.com/NataliaAntonova/status/1084124618821124099?s=17

Thread.

Natalia Antonova đŸ±đŸ”” (@NataliaAntonova) Tweeted:

I’m reading a Russian-language book now, a compilation of stories of narcissistic abuse. What gets me especially is that a decade ago, I would’ve said, “That couldn’t possibly happen to me!”

What you fear in the night in the day comes to call anyway (lol, it’s true).

The 5 Key Constituencies Of The 2020 Democratic Primary | FiveThirtyEight

The 5 Corners Of The 2020 Democratic Primary

«One obvious question you might have before we proceed further: Why aren’t women one of the groups? The answer is that women represent almost 60 percent of the Democratic primary electorate3 and so they’re a major portion of all of these groups. In fact, women are likely the majority of all of these groups, with the possible exception of The Left, which skews male. So when you think of a default voter from one of these groups, you should probably think of a woman.»

(I haven’t read the details of each group.)

How Russia Helped Swing the Election for Trump | The New Yorker

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/01/how-russia-helped-to-swing-the-election-for-trump

«Her case is based on a growing body of knowledge about the electronic warfare waged by Russian trolls and hackers—whom she terms “discourse saboteurs”—and on five decades’ worth of academic studies about what kinds of persuasion can influence voters, and under what circumstances. Democracies around the world, she told me, have begun to realize that subverting an election doesn’t require tampering with voting machines. Extensive studies of past campaigns, Jamieson said, have demonstrated that “you can affect people, who then change their decision, and that alters the outcome.” She continued, “I’m not arguing that Russians pulled the voting levers. I’m arguing that they persuaded enough people to either vote a certain way or not vote at all.”

The effect of such manipulations could be momentous in an election as close as the 2016 race, in which Clinton got nearly 2.9 million more votes than Trump, and Trump won the Electoral College only because some eighty thousand votes went his way in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In two hundred and twenty-four pages of extremely dry prose, with four appendixes of charts and graphs and fifty-four pages of footnotes, Jamieson makes a strong case that, in 2016, “Russian masterminds” pulled off a technological and political coup. Moreover, she concludes, the American media “inadvertently helped them achieve their goals.”»

National Emergency Powers and Trump’s Border Wall, Explained – The New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/07/us/politics/trump-national-emergency.html

«The recent caravans from Central America primarily consist of migrants who are not trying to sneak across the border but instead are presenting themselves to border officials and requesting asylum.

And while Mr. Trump and his aides keep claiming that terrorists are sneaking in across the border, including assertions that they are doing so by the thousands, as a matter of empirical reality, there has been no such instance in the modern era.

….

In part by accident.»

Veselnitskaya, Russian in Trump Tower Meeting, Is Charged in Case That Shows Kremlin Ties – The New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/nyregion/trump-tower-natalya-veselnitskaya-indictment.html

*cough cough* [waves hands]

Awful lot of smoke in here.

«The charges stem from the Justice Department’s 2013 civil investigation into the role that some of Ms. Veselnitskaya’s clients — Prevezon Holdings Ltd. and its owner, Denis P. Katsyv — played in a scheme to launder ill-gotten money through New York real estate purchases.»