Are we back?

Another article on bonds, if you feel like a longish read:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-simple-explanation-for-this-weeks-treasury-market-mayhem-9351f339?st=97v1mv&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink (gift)

«Yet the underlying problem will remain: The process of upending the global-trading system, which escalated again Friday, is making investors everywhere less confident in holding U.S. financial assets. The ultimate outlet for this is the dollar, which keeps plummeting against major developed currencies, and may have much lower to go.»

https://www.france24.com/en/business/20250412-investors-dump-us-government-bonds-faith-america-falters-tariffs-trump

«Among the possible knock-on effects is a big hit to ordinary Americans in the form of higher interest rates on mortgages, car financing and other loans.

“As yields move higher, you’ll see your borrowing rates move higher, too,” said Brian Rehling, head of fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “And every corporation uses these funding markets. If they get more expensive, they’re going to have to pass along those costs customers or cut costs by cutting jobs.”»

https://apnews.com/article/greenland-commander-fired-vance-space-force-48d542d1b6adc5e920b45b252de3a7d0

I have no doubt this was not a surprise to her.

https://www.wonkette.com/p/megyn-kelly-shocked-young-gop-men

«“That was my goal in helping him, especially with women. I wanted to look them in the eyes, figuratively, and say: Trust me. You know I’m pro-woman, and you know I’ve expressed doubts about him in the past, about some of the choices he’s made when it came to dealing with women, but there is no other choice for women in this election,” Kelly explained.

There was, of course, another choice for women, but let’s not get too off track here.»

Also, yeesh, that picture at the top. Did somebody run it through AI, or was she just that airbrushed?

https://www.natesilver.net/p/wall-street-thinks-trumps-tariffs

«In percentage terms — which is the better way to look at this — the drop in the markets wasn‘t quite so bad: a mere 3.98 percentage point loss in the Dow on Thursday, and 4.84 points in the broader S&P 500. Still, even though Trump had announced “Liberation Day” in advance, Wall Street has persistently failed to take Trump’s tariff threats seriously enough: Thursday’s declines were on top of the downward adjustments stocks already made after the Canada-Mexico tariffs, the auto tariffs Trump announced last week, and whatever expectations for “Liberation Day” were already priced into the market.»

…

«Trump-supporting sycophants in Silicon Valley — I’m sorry to use such invective; it’s really not my style, but I don’t think a softer term is precise enough — are either lying to you or lying to themselves about this. Here’s Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia Capital, which was once one of the most prestigious VC firms in the Valley but whose reputation has suffered after investments in Sam Bankman-Fried and other miscalculations:

[something about stock market not revealing truth about economy.]

OK, Shaun, did you actually look at stocks? Which ones suffered the biggest losses? Because I did. And they’re largely consumer staples from the lower-middlebrow on up, or cyclical purchases — like autos and air travel — that Americans consume more of when they think good times are ahead and pull back from when they’re in the brace position preparing for a recession.»

…

«And if Wall Street is right and we get to the point where Americans are stocking up on booze and cigarettes but avoiding buying new toys or taking their kids to Six Flags — and don’t even dream of upgrading their cars or their homes — and all of this is because of some back-office employee who used ChatGPT to upend the global trade system … look I don’t know what the bottom is in Trump’s approval ratings. But it will be tested in a way it probably never was during the first term. There’s no constituency for this, and the excuses you’re seeing from Silicon Valley are transparent cope. Trump just basically has to hope that Wall Street is wrong, or that the economy, which was pretty good when he took office, has enough gas in the tank to ride it out.»

Angry goose: and why was the economy so great?

https://herereadthis.blog/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-tracking-the-economic-impact-of-the-trump-trade-war/

Focusing on the revenue part… AOC said the Republicans need to find $4 trillion for their tax cuts. Here’s a big part, I guess. Yay, tax cuts. I wonder how Wall Street feels about this?

«It helps, now and then, to step back and take the long view.

The Kingdom is not only beyond our efforts; it is even beyond our vision.

We accomplish in our lifetime only a fraction of the magnificent enterprise that is God’s work.

Nothing we do is complete, which is another way of saying that the kingdom always lies beyond us.

No statement says all that could be said.  No prayer fully expresses our faith.  No confession brings perfection.  No pastoral visit brings wholeness.  No program accomplishes the church’s mission.  No set of goals and objectives includes everything.

This is what we are about.

We plant the seeds that one day will grow.  We water the seeds already planted, knowing that they hold future promise.  We lay foundations that will need further development.  We provide yeast that produces effects far beyond our capabilities.

We cannot do everything and there is a sense of liberation in realizing that.  This enables us to do something and to do it well.  It may be incomplete, but it is a beginning, a step along the way, an opportunity for the Lord’s grace to enter and do the rest.  We may never see the end results, but that is the difference between the Master Builder and the worker.

We are workers, not master builders; ministers, not messiahs.

We are prophets of a future not our own.»

http://www.romerotrust.org.uk/romero-prayer

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/

The next time Republicans claim tax increases will reduce employment, I guess we need to ask them to come up numbers like these.