What’s Behind Warren’s Weak Start | FiveThirtyEight

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-behind-warrens-weak-start/

Thanks, @perrybaconjr. If you were normal media, I’d excoriate you for this “maybe/maybe not” ending, but I’ll cut you some slack since you’re 538. I’m hoping for the former (wide appeal).

Also, ftr, I like the “weak start” headline. Much better than something more negative. It IS only a start.

«But this nomination race is incredibly unsettled, and at some point, having wide appeal might come in handy.

Or not.»

New Hampshire. Plus: “Beefsteak” Bernie Bros (CANNONFIRE)

https://cannonfire.blogspot.com/2020/02/new-hampshire-plus-beefsteak-bernie-bros.html

Yikes.

«The elections that brought Hitler to power offer us a profound warning from the past. The left-most German party was the KDP; we may consider those voters the Bernie Bros of their time and place. They concentrated not on defeating Hitler but on weakening the center.

Believe it or not, the prospect of a Hitler victory appealed to many within the KDP. They said: “After Hitler, our turn.” It didn’t occur to those naive ninnies that Hitler would smash any mechanism that might give them a turn.

Once Hitler consolidated power, a surprising number of KDP rank-and-filers decided to join the Nazi party. They were derisively labeled “Beefsteak Nazis” — brown on the outside, red on the inside. Before not too many years had passed, the browning had gone all the way to the marrow.

I wonder how many Bernie Bros have the potential to turn into Beefsteak Nazis? Quite a few, I’d reckon. Consider the example of H.A. Goodman.»

Who?

This guy: https://thedailybanter.com/2018/04/23/ha-goodman-now-supports-trump/ (Maybe he’s an outlier, maybe… not so much of an outlier?)

Indy state-level endorsements + fun writing

https://indyweek.com/news/elections/2020-primary-endorsements-governor-council-of-state/

No, really, they really are a liberal rag; they just endorse Republicans sometimes to fool you.

«Republican: Christine Mumma

The only plausible Republican to replace Josh Stein, Mumma is the executive director of the North Carolina Commission on Actual Innocence, and she’s represented nine people who’ve been exonerated for crimes they didn’t commit. Her two opponents are unremarkable. This one’s easy.

….

Republican: Mike Causey


Say what you want about Mike Causey, but don’t say he’s corrupt. When developer Greg Lindberg tried to bribe him to fire an unfriendly senior regulator, Causey reported him to the feds and then wore a wire, leading to Lindberg’s arrest (and that of two associates) and the arrest of the NCGOP’s chairman.

….

Republican: None of these


It’ll take some effort to be a worse labor commissioner than our departing elevator queen, Cherie Berry. But by God, these three—Chuck Stanley, Josh Dobson, and Pearl Floyd—are going to try.»

Elizabeth Warren is in New Hampshire, running for president against fear itself – The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/loving-elizabeth-warren-means-having-a-plan-for-when-america-breaks-your-heart/2020/02/10/53ecb1e6-48f2-11ea-b4d9-29cc419287eb_story.html

Wow. This is a surprisingly good article. I gotta say, though: I don’t agree w/the assumption she’s going to lose. Buttigieg will peak soon. Sanders may still fall short, just as he did in 2016. Biden is weaker than everybody thought (except some of us). I actually think she’s running the right campaign. Persisting, you might say.

Some quotes:

«What I think this man means is that ever since 2016, we have been trapped in a vague debate about electability, and whether it’s only men who have it. In the fog of uncertainty over Hillary Clinton’s complicated defeat (she neglected Wisconsin, she used a private email server, she was a “nasty woman” slain by weaponized misogyny, she still won the popular vote), the debate has mutated into an abstract panic about whether any woman can get elected in 2020.

….

These days, of course, people don’t say, “I won’t vote for a woman”; they say, “I’m scared my moderate father-in-law needs a man on the ballot to motivate him to the polls.”

….

But Warren’s supporters, more than anyone else, said they’d vote for whomever they needed to vote for.

One way to read this is that Warren doesn’t have crossover appeal: She appeals only to the folks who would have voted Democratic no matter what. Another way to read this is that her supporters are as practical as they are passionate: There’s an outcome they’d prefer, but if it doesn’t happen, they’ll move on to the next best thing. They’ve got a plan for that.

After talking to enough of her fans, I think it’s the second explanation. The second explanation, mixed with something deeper:

Loving Elizabeth Warren means planning for America to break your heart.»

BUT NOT YET and maybe just not, period. I want to emphasize that. She can win, the primary and the general, despite what Twitter says.