https://www.natesilver.net/p/wall-street-thinks-trumps-tariffs
«In percentage terms — which is the better way to look at this — the drop in the markets wasn‘t quite so bad: a mere 3.98 percentage point loss in the Dow on Thursday, and 4.84 points in the broader S&P 500. Still, even though Trump had announced “Liberation Day” in advance, Wall Street has persistently failed to take Trump’s tariff threats seriously enough: Thursday’s declines were on top of the downward adjustments stocks already made after the Canada-Mexico tariffs, the auto tariffs Trump announced last week, and whatever expectations for “Liberation Day” were already priced into the market.»
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«Trump-supporting sycophants in Silicon Valley — I’m sorry to use such invective; it’s really not my style, but I don’t think a softer term is precise enough — are either lying to you or lying to themselves about this. Here’s Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia Capital, which was once one of the most prestigious VC firms in the Valley but whose reputation has suffered after investments in Sam Bankman-Fried and other miscalculations:
[something about stock market not revealing truth about economy.]
OK, Shaun, did you actually look at stocks? Which ones suffered the biggest losses? Because I did. And they’re largely consumer staples from the lower-middlebrow on up, or cyclical purchases — like autos and air travel — that Americans consume more of when they think good times are ahead and pull back from when they’re in the brace position preparing for a recession.»
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«And if Wall Street is right and we get to the point where Americans are stocking up on booze and cigarettes but avoiding buying new toys or taking their kids to Six Flags — and don’t even dream of upgrading their cars or their homes — and all of this is because of some back-office employee who used ChatGPT to upend the global trade system … look I don’t know what the bottom is in Trump’s approval ratings. But it will be tested in a way it probably never was during the first term. There’s no constituency for this, and the excuses you’re seeing from Silicon Valley are transparent cope. Trump just basically has to hope that Wall Street is wrong, or that the economy, which was pretty good when he took office, has enough gas in the tank to ride it out.»
Angry goose: and why was the economy so great?