https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article221284870.html

:-\

https://www.thedailybeast.com/montanas-jon-tester-beats-back-the-trump-cavalry-to-win-another-term

«Tester beat Republican Matt Rosendale by about 5,000 votes, after remaining ballots were tallied on Wednesday.»

Out of 455,000 cast, so a 1.1%-margin. Every vote counts.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-what-to-make-of-election-night/

Good commentary. I like 538.

Worth re-emphasizing:

All four of the NC statwide judicial candidates endorsed by The Independent won. For North Carolina, that’s huge (for now, anyway).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-republicans-made-gains-in-the-senate/

«Depending on how things shake out in the remaining races, it’s possible that 30 of 35 Senate races (86 percent) will have voted for the same party that won the state at the presidential level in 2016. Compared to past elections, that rate would be very high for a midterm.
….
En route to its gains in the Senate, the GOP defeated three Democratic incumbents: Republican Mike Braun beat Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly by 10 points, Republican Josh Hawley defeated Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill by 6 points, and Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer beat North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp by 10. All three seats were in states that President Trump carried in 2016, and they were going to be tough for Democrats to hold given the states’ partisan lean toward the GOP. Add in Florida, which looks likely to be called against incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, and a Republican takedown of that quartet would be historically notable. Four Senate incumbent defeats for the non-presidential party in a midterm would be the highest number since eight Republican incumbents lost in 1934.»

Plus Tester in Montana equals five.

There are tectonic shifts in America happening, and not in a good direction. The urban-rural divide is worse than ever and rural America has doubled down on its worse instincts.

Maybe. There were also some bright spots: Kobach lost in Kansas, Whitmer won in Michigan, looks like Walker’s out in Wisconsin, and all four of the NC statwide judicial candidates endorsed by The Independent won. For North Carolina, that’s huge (for now, anyway).

Also, Florida ex-felons get the right to vote (big implications for presidential elections) and redistricting reform and automatic or same-day voter registration passed in a number of states. (https://www.npr.org/2018/11/07/664993438/voters-approve-major-changes-to-redistricting-and-other-voting-laws).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/#3777

«So far, establishment primary candidates who fended off liberal insurgents in House races are looking good (Pennsylvania 7th, Kansas 3rd and Texas 7th), while winning liberal insurgents are fairing poorly (Nebraska 2nd and Pennsylvania 1st). But especially combined with Gillum’s loss, it may come to be seen as a better evening for sticking with Democratic establishment picks.»

Sorry about Gillum, though.

(and 2016 seems to have betrayed our fundamental character).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/#3604

«In the 49 counties where we’ve got nearly complete data in the Florida Senate race, the correlation between county-level voting in this Senate race and in 2016 is a whopping 0.99.»

We have so much work to do for 2020.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-democrats-arent-certain-to-take-the-house-but-theyre-pretty-clear-favorites/

Pretty sure I wrote a blog post a year or so ago saying this same thing. [Edit: https://plus.google.com/+JohnLusk/posts/V2jVZKZQBpa — but Google+ is going away in less than year, so read it while it’s hot.]

«An 86 percent chance might seem like a sure thing, but it isn’t — would you board a plane that had a 14 percent chance of crashing?»

https://twitter.com/Johnny_Joey/status/1050375869372518403?s=17

Part of a thread:

Johnny (Joey) Jones (@Johnny_Joey) Tweeted:

This isn’t the responsibility of the @DeptVetAffairs alone. I’d argue it’s hardly their responsibility at all. The @DeptofDefense trains vets for 3
months to join, for 6 months to deploy, for year to promote and.. 2 weeks to leave service. The disparity is obvious.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/\

Beto has been behind in ALL the polls, all year, except for one Ipsos poll in early-mid September. (538 gives Ipsos a B+ rating, which ain’t bad.)