https://data4democracy.substack.com/p/does-higher-turnout-now-help-republicans

«Registered Democrats made up a much larger share of non-voters (15.2 million or 38.8%) than registered Republicans (7.7 million or 19.6%), with Independents/Other affiliations constituting the largest group (16.3 million or 41.6%). This means that nearly twice as many Democrats as Republicans sat out the election—a stark contrast to claims that increased turnout would benefit Republicans.»

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«The data reveals that Republicans consistently turn out at higher rates than Democrats—often by substantial margins—regardless of which sample definition we use.»

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«These findings run counter to claims that higher turnout would benefit Republicans. While 2024 patterns may differ from previous cycles, the historical evidence is clear: across multiple recent elections, non-voters have maintained a consistent and substantial Democratic lean—often by substantial margins.

We’ll have more definitive evidence when the 2024 CCES data is released, but the existing survey data provides no support for the narrative that non-voters now favor Republicans.»

So, voter suppression remains the name of the game.

«One reason to be concerned about embracing the narrative that increased turnout hurts Democrats is that it would discourage the party from adopting the vocally pro-voting messaging that helped fuel their success in the 2018 midterms. In that election, Democrats successfully mobilized their lower-propensity voters, achieving extraordinary turnout for a midterm election—even as measures of ideology showed Democratic candidates as a group veering to the left.»

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«Ultimately, this debate will be settled by data, not theory. When the 2024 CCES results become available, we’ll be able to directly test whether non-voters have indeed shifted toward Republicans as dramatically as Shor suggests.

For now, the evidence from voter files and recent survey data points to a different conclusion: Democrats’ primary challenge isn’t that high turnout inherently favors Republicans, but that they’re consistently losing the mobilization battle with their own registered supporters.»