https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-tariffs-florsheim-shoes

«The ongoing trade uncertainty—plus Iran war–related cost spikes, and various erratic market interventions from this president—suggest that the tariff refunds trickling out may be less of an economic tailwind than once seemed possible. Multiple companies told me they’re not planning to use their tariff rebates to expand or hire because they needed it to patch holes in their balance sheet. Or they planned to sock the funds away just in case their tariff rates surged again.

Ironically, this lack of clarity about the tariff landscape may also be discouraging firms from reshoring manufacturing—Trump’s stated goal—because they too don’t know what their costs will be.

After all, Trump has tariffed not only finished consumer goods (appliances, bicycles, bathtubs), but intermediate goods, inputs, and raw materials, as well. Think: steel, aluminum, industrial machinery parts, electronics components, textiles, wood, chemicals, plastics.»

And some other points they didn’t have the energy to develop into full articles:

«— Despite Trump’s insistence that immigrants are taking all the jobs, a new NBER working paper examining Trump 2.0’s ICE raids finds zero benefit for native-born workers: “We see no evidence that employers increase wages to attract U.S.-born workers to fill these jobs in the face of immigration enforcement. Instead, our results are consistent with employers reducing labor demand overall, including for jobs often taken by U.S.-born workers.”

— Most of the immigration-related harm to the labor force, however, is likely happening through new constraints on legal immigration, rather than enforcement against the unauthorized kind. Case in point: Just two days ago, the government announced a surprise plan to effectively eject from the United States hundreds of thousands of green-card applicants, including spouses of U.S. citizens.

…

— Big international athletic events are usually a money pit for the hosting country, but at least they have some positive spillover effect for the local hospitality and tourism industry. It’s unclear whether that will be the case for the World Cup. A new report from the American Hotel & Lodging Association says that up to 70 percent of rooms reserved by FIFA in Boston, Dallas, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Seattle have been canceled.»