https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/07/wager-platform-polymarket-will-not-pay-out-on-bets-on-us-invasion-of-venezuela

«After Polymarket clarified that the seizure of Maduro did not qualify for a winning bet, the odds of an invasion before the end of January crashed to below 5%.»

🙂

Right. How *do* you define the end of a ruler in a crisp and clear enough way? Might have to be in retrospect, so the payout might not come for years.