«do not mistake certainty for accuracy. The scientific literature on decision making is replete with studies showing that confidence and accuracy are often not highly correlated[viii]. Being more confident does not make it more likely that an analyst is right. The challenge, of course, is that confidence is often persuasive[ix].

….

we must be mindful that if we are typically more confident than right, then the analyst, briefer, or other persuader is too. Some will boldly saunter in with an “obvious answer.” In these instances, we have to take extra care to separate the objective evidence from the subjective experience and the delivery. We may need to re-orient ourselves to listen to ideas that start with “what if…” or “I wonder what would happen….” or “this may seem silly, but…” Those ideas do not have to prevail, but they should not be summarily dismissed. Quiet voices can also speak truth.»

https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/the-fox-and-the-hedgehog-contrasting-approaches-to-anticipating-the-environment/