https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/upshot/polling-2020-biden-trump.html

I’m still hoping the mushy middle voters will *decisively* repudiate Donald Trump, but:

«At the moment, a reasonable estimate is that Mr. Biden is performing four or five points worse among likely voters in the critical states than he is among registered voters nationwide. As a result, he holds only a narrow and tenuous edge in the race for the Electoral College, if he holds one at all.»