https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-democrats-arent-certain-to-take-the-house-but-theyre-pretty-clear-favorites/

Pretty sure I wrote a blog post a year or so ago saying this same thing. [Edit: https://plus.google.com/+JohnLusk/posts/V2jVZKZQBpa — but Google+ is going away in less than year, so read it while it’s hot.]

«An 86 percent chance might seem like a sure thing, but it isn’t — would you board a plane that had a 14 percent chance of crashing?»