https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-arizona-8th-special-election/

«Based on FiveThirtyEight partisan lean, an 8-point Lesko win would be exactly in line with past special-election results that have pointed to a Democratic wave. If, however, Lesko wins by a margin in the teens — thus holding Democratic overperformance to 12 points or fewer — then perhaps special-election results are beginning to come into agreement with the tightening generic ballot polls; maybe Democrats’ position truly is eroding. Or maybe not — it’s just one data point.

The margin may also influence both parties’ thinking about November’s big U.S. Senate race in Arizona, which could be decisive in the battle for control of the upper chamber. Again, this special election will be just one data point, but it will be the first one we have for the Grand Canyon State, which is important because Democratic special-election overperformance has varied widely from state to state. Arizona as a whole has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+7.5, so theoretically, any Tipirneni overperformance of 8 points or more would bode well for Democrats’ chances to flip Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat.»