https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/978278671206289409

Elliott Morris is a bit more optimistic than Nate Silver, but here’s the bottom line: because Dems slept through the 2010 election, state Republicans got to draw electoral districts so as to pack some Dem districts to be solid blue, and crack the rest across a bunch of Republican districts so that Dems lose their voting power and are drowned by Republican votes. The result is that (a) it will take a huge swing in vote margins to flip the House (which might happen, if we all get out and vote), but also (b) just a few more points lets us pick up a lot more Republican seats.

State-level elections matter, a lot.